Friday, 5 February 2016

Saving the Whale



In recent weeks, a couple of dozen sperm whales have ended up on beaches in the UK, Norway, France and Germany, when normally these huge animals spend their time in the deep ocean, not in the relatively shallow North Sea. Marine scientists are puzzled as to why this has occurred. Occasionally this happens, but very rarely on this scale, and this is possibly the biggest instance for a hundred years. As odd as it may seem, there might be a connection between the unusual beaching of whales in several countries and military submarine activity.
My speculation on what has happened is based upon a comment made by one scientist on a news programme that these whales might have ‘got lost’, or for some reason went the wrong way. These whales use echolocation for hunting and for communication, with signals sent at very low frequencies – for different purposes at 0.5, 5 and 15 kHz. I would guess that the most likely cause of the disorientation of the whales is due to an increase in military submarine activity!
Military submarines often use similar frequency communication (usually below 20 or 30kHz). These signals could have led to the directional mistakes made by the beached whales – they tend to travel in groups, so disorientating a few would lead to more getting lost. Assuming that it would take the whales a while to travel to the wrong location, this would suggest that over the past several months there has been a big increase in submarine activity, something that would turn a one-off blunder by a whale with squid indigestion into a major event affecting many.
No country will advertise its military surveillance operations, especially those that need not be acknowledged when below the waves. One recent NATO report argues that there has been an increase in Russian submarine activity, while questions about the value of the UK’s Trident programme, based in Scotland, could also have prompted the Royal Navy to increase theirs. So, if you really want to save the whale, you have to be an anti-militarist too!
Tony Norfield, 5 February 2016

Monday, 1 February 2016

Capitalism, Imperialism, Profit and Finance


The following notes are designed to assist anyone who has tried to analyse developments in global capitalism. Even if the reader has not, then the points made will highlight some issues that should be borne in mind when examining what is written or discussed on these topics.

1. Imperialism and world economy

Any attempt to understand things from the perspective of a national economy is bound to fail. Even the US, the world’s largest economy, can only be understood from how it fits into the world economy. For example, the US dollar is world money, not just the national currency of the United States. Its importance and role depends upon the scope of US power versus other countries, both in economic and political terms. However, even the position of the dollar can be challenged by international developments. It is not an unchanging hegemony; nor has it been in place for all time. Signs that US power has limits are seen in the collapse of ‘The Project for the New American Century’ in 2006 and the political shambles of US policy in the Middle East and North Africa. However much destruction might be in US interests from a tactical perspective, it is hardly a recipe for continued hegemony.
Far less can the UK, France, Germany, China, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, etc, etc, be understood unless their position in the world economy is taken into account. Their government and corporate policy choices are decided with this in mind. Nevertheless, a key point is that a small number of countries have a monopolistic position in the delivery of most key goods and services and, of the 200 or so countries in the world, there are only around 20 who count for anything in the hierarchy.
For this reason alone, Keynesian economic theory is useless for an analysis of the world economy (see here for a fuller discussion). Quite apart from its errors in understanding the profit-driven nature of capitalism, it focuses only on flows of income, rather the origin of that income and, at most, allows only for international trade balances. Almost always, a Keynesian approach is tied into a nationalist outlook, something that underpins so many apparently radical policies. ‘International’ Keynesianism might appear to be an exception to this, but it is a utopian technocrat’s toolbox. The OECD, or G7 meetings, might recommend changes in economic policy by different countries to benefit world economic growth, but everything still comes down to whatever is in the interests of the capitalist countries concerned.

2. Nationalism and imperialism

Attempting to ‘save’ the national economy to make things better for its inhabitants, for example, by calling for import controls or other forms of government regulation, is a reactionary policy. Firstly, it endorses the existing power of the national capitalist state to determine what will happen. Secondly, it raises national salvation above solidarity with people in other countries who are facing similar problems. This is particularly an issue for progressive people in the imperialist countries that have a dominant position in the world economy. If radicals make any concessions to those who are seeking to defend their privileges in a bankrupt system, rather than to show how the system is indeed bankrupt and must be overthrown, then they have only a short step from this to supporting imperialist aggression. The records of many wars stand in evidence.
I would possibly make one exception here. If, following a popular seizure of state power, that new government enacts policies to defend itself, then it could be seen as a legitimate, though temporary means of securing progressive gains. But if a radical in a rich country calls for such measures, while not mentioning the precondition of a popular seizure of state power before, then you know you have found an apologist for imperialism.

3. The ‘real economy’, finance and profit

There are different kinds of capitalist company and different ways in which they try to make a profit. All profit, rent or interest derives from the surplus labour performed by workers, but the process of capitalist market exchange hides this and makes it appear as if ‘making money’ in business is simply a result of special talent or, perhaps, luck, irrespective of the kind of business concerned. So, producing a good or service as a commodity in the market, buying and selling these commodities, being a real estate agent, lending money or dealing in foreign exchange, bonds and equities all look, from a capitalist market perspective, as much the same kind of profit-making business. That view upsets common sense, so economists have come up with the notion of a ‘real economy’ of making things versus the rest of the economy, especially versus a ‘financial economy’. However, this distinction ignores both how capitalism is not bothered about making anything except profit and how all the major ‘real economy’ companies are heavily involved in the financial sphere, from stock market takeovers to financial dealings of all kinds.
The modern economy has a pervasively financial form, and the key signals for what is profitable, acceptable or viable to capitalism are transmitted through the financial markets – as reflected in a company’s share price, or a company’s or government’s ability to borrow money. This is basically a more developed form of the traditional ‘laws of supply and demand’ for the commodities a company might produce. It remains the case, nevertheless, that it is capitalist production that produces the profit that is shared, in various ways, among the different types of capitalist company.
Imperialism casts a new light on this process too. Access to funding, access to markets, the ability to use super-exploited labour, the ability to close off markets to competitors, or to use the legal system to protect property and patents, are all special privileges of the major countries, to which the weaker, poorer countries have far less recourse. This affects the profits appropriated by capitalist companies. If the analysis you read takes little or no account of it, you are reading the work of an ignoramus or, more likely, an apologist for the imperialist system.

4. Forms of profit and finance

In recent years, one area of my research was capitalist profitability, the rate of profit, etc. The more I looked into it, the trickier it got. Firstly, the available data do not necessarily measure what they claim to measure. For example, if a company registers a large profit, then that looks like what it has ‘made’, when the reality is that its profit is what its market position has enabled it to appropriate, perhaps by depending upon super-exploited labour from its suppliers, or from a monopolistic position in the world economy defended by patents and commercial laws. Secondly, even if these things were not a problem, then there is still the important question of the different ways in which different kinds of capitalist company generate their profits.
Marxist theory makes a big distinction between capitalist companies in the industrial and commercial sphere and those operating in finance. Ironically, government statistics do a similar thing, although legions of mainstream economists do not. This distinction is based upon the nature of the capitalist investment taking place. The investment by industrial and commercial capitalist (ICC) companies is different from financial investment.
ICC companies largely advance their own money, or at least do not borrow much. This is shown in their low borrowing ratios, with borrowing commonly well below the equity investment of the capitalist owners. However, advancing capital in the financial sector is a very different matter, one that has been poorly covered, or understood, by Marxist writers (except, perhaps, for Suzanne de Brunhoff in her Marx on Money, and one or two others).
Financial companies, such as insurance funds, pension funds, asset managers, hedge funds, banks, etc, advance money they are given by others. Banks also have an ability to create their own assets, via the banking system, as another way to ‘advance’ capital. All of this is a very different form of securing a profit than in the case of ICC companies, despite the fact that all of them rely upon the surplus labour performed by the working class.
For the financial companies, the revenues they gain are commonly in the form of interest on loans made or bonds purchased, or as dividends ‘earned’ from the equity securities they own, or as rents from their investments in property assets. For Marxist analysis, this is technically different from ICC profits earned – after paying interest, etc – from the advance of capital by the owners of such corporations.
The distinction is most simply seen by comparing the leverage of financial companies with ICC. Often, the borrowing ratios of the former are more than twenty times higher than the latter. As a result, with the same advance of the owners’ capital, the amount actually invested/lent, etc, by a financial company can be dramatically higher than for ICC investments. This is a practical expression of the fact that the rate of interest, or such ‘financial’ returns, is not the same as the rate of profit. They have very different roles in the capitalist system, as I argue in my new book.
Any notion of financial ‘investment’ gets even more complex with financial derivatives. Here, what is recorded in accounting practice as an ‘asset’ is simply a derivative with a positive market value. If the derivative market price changes so that it is a loss to the holder, then it becomes a liability.
What appear initially as clear concepts of investment, and the rate of profit on that investment, are complicated by the reality of modern finance. Just consider, for example, that corporations quoted on the major stock exchanges pay most attention to their ‘return on equity’ or their ‘earnings per share’, rather than to a rate of profit due on the invested capital. This is the case, even though the capitalist system’s underlying rate of profit ultimately drives the ‘return on equity’, etc.

5. Economic history

The subject of economic history has more or less disappeared from academic prospectuses. However, it is an indispensable for any understanding of the modern world. Luckily, there are books still being produced that delve into archives and bring to light hidden aspects of important past events, ones that usually contradict the standard mythology, whether on the funding of the welfare state in rich countries, the dealings between major powers or of the road to war and oppression. It may seem perverse that the most enlightening critiques of imperialism can come from what would appear to be mainstream or even conservative writers, at least the ones with their wits about them who do not blindly accept what ‘everybody knows’. By comparison, many radicals often just embellish the mythology with invented stories of ‘struggle’ and ignore inconvenient facts, notably the chauvinism of the masses in the major countries. Rather than a ‘struggle’ by the working class for reforms, a story that appears to be anti-capitalist, often the reality was instead that the ruling elites did a deal with the bureaucracy of trade unions and popular political parties to secure a national consensus that would support imperialism.

Tony Norfield, 1 February 2016

Monday, 25 January 2016

The City: London and the Global Power of Finance


My new book, The City: London and the Global Power of Finance, will be published by Verso Books on 12 April 2016. Below I note reviews that it has received so far and give a full list of the contents. Details for ordering the book, which will be available both in hardback (price £20) and as an ebook, are available on the Verso website and on Amazon.
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“Tony Norfield has provided a strikingly original take on the international financial system by placing it systematically within the world imperialist structure of power. He rejects the currently fashionable path of interpreting the ascent of finance by looking at how the leading financial sector agents, operating by way of banks, hedge funds, private equity firms, and the like, manipulate the political-economic game to increase their own personal wealth, while downplaying any useful economic functions they might be fulfilling. He insists, on the contrary, that finance be understood as a form of power deriving from the economic-cum political capacity to compete at the highest levels of global capitalism, which simultaneously endows a limited group of countries and corporations disproportionate access to the world s resources and operates as the system's indispensable nerve center. Norfield's unusual clarity as both an analyst and expositor is reflected in his ability to lay out for his readers an easy-to-grasp introduction to how finance works today in the process of offering a detailed historically-rooted account of the multiple hierarchies and privileged relationships through which global economic domination is constructed and reproduced. The City is a tour de force, which will soon be recognized as a formidable challenge to conventional wisdom and an essential contribution in its own right.”
Robert Brenner

“This book does the seemingly impossible: rendering finance's mysteries transparent to the average reader, and at the same time delivering a penetrating analysis of the global economic system that will enlighten even experts. Tony Norfield has written a truly exciting and important book.”
Paul Mattick, author of Business as Usual

“The City is a valuable addition to the critical analysis of the financialisation of our world. And Tony Norfield is an experienced and radical guide to London's role in this process. This book should be required reading for both bankers and activists alike.”
Joris Luyendjik, author of Swimming with Sharks: My Journey into the World of the Bankers



TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface

Chapter 1            Britain, Finance and the World Economy
World economic and financial power
Britain’s invisible empire
Understanding finance and imperialism
Insights, conspiracies and policy contingencies
The ‘End of History’ revisited
History wakes up
‘New Deal’ and no deal
The system

Chapter 2            The Anglo-American System
British or American finance?
Anglo-American financial relationships in transition
Building beyond the Empire
New York versus London
The Anglo-American euromarket
British capitalism, finance and official policy
Eurobonds and London’s international role
Historical logic

Chapter 3            Finance and the Major Powers
Regime change
British imperial strategy and the pound
State policy on financial markets from 1979
Finance and the major powers
Gravity and the global system

Chapter 4            Power and Parasitism
Money-capitalists and financial institutions
Interest-bearing capital
Banks
Brokers
Asset managers
Insurance companies
Pension funds
Bank credit creation
Financial securities and economic power
The flexible noose
Finance and the rule of capital
Financial parasitism
Global parasitism, investment, trade and finance
Who reaps the returns?

Chapter 5            The World Hierarchy
The premier league
Capitalism and the state
The state and finance
Monopoly and imperialism
Monopoly today
World projection of power

Chapter 6            Profit and Finance
Return on equity and leverage
Comparing profits
Financial assets and derivatives
Financial revenues, surplus value and securities
Trading revenues
The rate of profit and capital’s limits
Outcomes
Profits, financial and global developments
Moribund capitalism

Chapter 7            The Imperial Web
Currency, trade and seigniorage
‘Exorbitant privilege’
Running the world banking system: US dollar power
Financial services exports
Equity markets, financial power and control
Carving up the market
The daily grind

Chapter 8            Inside the Machine
Number crunching
The surplus from City dealing
Global capitalism’s financial broker
UK financial account: FDI, portfolio flows and bank funding
UK assets, liabilities and returns
The City’s global network, tax havens and global finance
Nice work, if you can get it

Chapter 9            Eternal Interests, Temporary Allies
‘Open for business’
Economics and domestic politics
Islamic finance and the City
China, BRICS and the Anglo-American system
Finance and the rule of capital


List of Tables
3.1       UK, Germany, France – patterns of trade, 1980 and 90 (% of total)
3.2       Financial market shares of major powers, 1980-2001 (% of total)
5.1       Corporate control by controlling company, 2007
6.1       UK monetary financial institutions’ financial balance sheet
7.1       Financial services export revenues, 2000-2013
7.2       Equity market capitalisation and turnover, 2013
8.1       UK current account balance and components, 1987-2014
8.2       External positions of banks, end-2014
8.3       Foreign exchange turnover, 1995-2013
8.4       OTC interest rate derivatives turnover, April 2013
8.5       UK financial account net annual flows, 1987-2014
8.6       Net external position of UK MFIs by location

List of Charts
5.1       The global pecking order, 2013-2014
6.1       Leverage ratios of major international banks, 2007–2011
6.2       Leverage ratios of major UK banks, 1960-2010
6.3       US corporate rate of profit, 1948-2013
6.4       US Federal Reserve financial support stays in place
8.1       Key components of the UK current account, 1987-2014
8.2       UK net foreign investment stock position, 1989-2014
8.3       Returns on UK foreign investment assets and liabilities, 1990-2014


Tony Norfield, 25 January 2016

Friday, 22 January 2016

Oil Prices, Equities and Debt


Equity markets have begun 2016 with the biggest falls on record, while the price of a barrel of oil dropped below $30. This is more than just a coincidence. The fall in oil prices results from, and also exacerbates, the continued malaise in the world economy
At first sight, lower oil prices should merely redistribute income from producers to consumers, via the lower of cost of energy, transport, etc. What is such a disaster about that, at least from the point of view of the world economy as a whole? One problem is the different concentration of the losses and gains: a small number of producers lose a lot, while many millions of consumers gain only a little. So news headlines report cancelled investment projects and job losses, rather than the motorist at the petrol station saving pennies on a litre of fuel. The negative impact on producers, especially on their investment, could well outweigh the demand that might result from consumers spending on other things. For example, many huge investments in shale production that looked viable when a barrel of oil was priced at $100 or above now look unprofitable – at least the loans given to these companies now look poorly backed by their prospects.
What is often overlooked, even by ‘Keynesian’ advocates of demand management, is that although consumer spending is bigger than investment in the economy, the swings in investment spending are much bigger than the percentage changes in consumption, and usually lead the up and down cycles of demand. Furthermore, what such analysts always overlook is that investment spending is basically driven by potential profitability. But this should not be a surprise in a capitalist economy!
More importantly, all this takes place in the context of continued, huge levels of debt compared to what the economy produces. There has been a sharp rise in debt levels versus GDP between 2007, ‘pre-crisis’, and 2014. This had occurred for almost all countries: poor countries such as China saw the sharpest rises in debt ratios; but rich countries saw a further increase from already elevated levels. This is the important context for the apparent reaction of equity markets to the fall in oil prices. The underlying problem is that debts cannot be paid back. It does not matter that the increase in debt in richer countries between 2007 and 2014 has largely been borne by the government, as the public sector took on private liabilities - all this means is that the pressure for austerity via cuts in government spending is all the greater. This casts doubt on the value of the full range of financial securities. Those securities linked to oil and gas prices now get hit directly because there is a clear focus of potential loss that is visible every second of the financial trading day. But the myriad of other equity securities issued by other financial, industrial and commercial companies get caught up in the downward vortex. This is not only because money capitalists work on the basis of what looks like giving the most attractive yield, so a fall in energy-related security prices has a knock on effect on other, non-energy-related securities too. More troubling is that there is clearly a broader problem affecting the whole economy.
This problem of debt and insufficient incentive to boost production overwhelms the otherwise mixed, plus and minus economic outcome (mainly plus) that follows from lower oil prices. In the oil market, refiners will be making more profit as the cost of their feedstock falls with lower crude oil prices faster than will their output prices of refined products. To some extent, this will insulate the integrated oil corporations from the downturn. Airline and other travel companies will also benefit from lower energy costs. So will China and Japan, major consumers of oil, although their energy companies will suffer. Nevertheless, governments, from Russia, Iran and Venezuela to Saudi Arabia, Norway and the UK will find their oil and gas tax revenues falling. This has already led Saudi Arabia to make very sharp cutbacks in its public spending to reduce a dramatically high deficit, while other countries have seen a drop in their currency exchange rates.

Table 1: Core Debt Levels of Non-Financial Sectors as a % of GDP, 2007 and 2014


Source: BIS, Quarterly Report, September 2015


All of this might simply be a series of local difficulties offset by positive developments elsewhere. But, in the absence of any momentum to support profitable capitalist investment elsewhere, it results in continued capitalist stagnation and the promise of yet more government measures to prevent a collapse of their system.

Tony Norfield, 22 January 2016

Thursday, 14 January 2016

Jerusalem. No, the One in England

In another example of the English sense of humour, while the world is on fire, news has come that the British Parliament might debate whether England should be given its own national anthem. If so, it might displace at sporting and other local, national occasions, the nauseating, genuflecting dirge 'God Save the Queen'. A favoured  option is William Blake's 'Jerusalem', a short poem published in 1808, and now used as a fake-nostalgic, patriotic, Methodism-not-socialism hymn of the beleaguered British Labour 'movement' (quotation marks indicating no real movement at all). As such, its chances of success are not negligible.

The words, although some of you may already know these by heart, are:

And did those feet in ancient time
Walk upon England’s mountains green?
And was the holy Lamb of God
On England’s pleasant pastures seen?
And did the countenance divine
Shine forth upon our clouded hills?
And was Jerusalem builded here
Among those dark satanic mills?

Bring me my bow of burning gold!
Bring me my arrows of desire!
Bring me my spear: o clouds unfold!
Bring me my chariots of fire!
I will not cease from mental fight;
Nor shall my sword sleep in my hand
Till we have built Jerusalem
In England’s green and pleasant land.

I will make no comment on whether, in the two centuries since the poem was published, England remains a 'green and pleasant land'. Opinions differ, and there are relative, not absolute issues to consider for a full evaluation, as labour movement management consultants will attest. However, a German comedian, Henning Wehn, has noted that this is a song with four opening questions, the answer to each of which is 'No'.

Tony Norfield, 14 January 2016




Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Saudi Arabia and Imperialism


Saudi Arabia has been a major player in Middle East politics. It backed the 2013 overthrow of the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt, since the example of an elected government of a major country next door was not welcome to the Saudi family autocracy. It has suppressed Shia-based protests in Bahrain and Yemen and has sought to spread its version of Islam around the world, with the funding of Wahhabi schools/madrasas, while it is well known that Saudi plutocrats have funded ISIS/Daesh in Syria and Iraq.[1] In the economic sphere, it plays the role of being a major low-cost ‘swing’ producer of oil. Its 2014 decision to continue oil production was a factor (apart from world economic stagnation) leading to the slump in oil prices, its logic being to undercut the growth of rival energy production, especially shale oil and gas in North America, as well as more costly oil production elsewhere, including in Russia and Iran. Accumulated Saudi oil wealth remains huge, but its income is now diminishing, leading to record public spending deficits and the reduction of its bank balances overseas.
In the early 20th century, Ibn Saud’s political skills and military strategy outmanoeuvred his opponents, helping him extend his power from his initial base in the eastern Najd region and to rule over the Najd by 1921.[2] By 1926, he had also conquered the western Hijaz region, including Mecca and Medina. In 1932, these regions were formally put under Ibn Saud’s rule, to form the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The late-1930s discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia changed many things, and brought the US into the equation as well as providing the Saudis with untold wealth. A review of these developments helps show that the Saudi regime is more transitory than it might otherwise look. Far from being a solidly established, and immovable, reactionary force in the region, and for all the appearance of power, the Saudi edifice is on shaky ground.

Regional economics, politics and the major powers

In the early 20th century, the Middle East region was dominated mainly by the Ottoman Empire (Turkey), with the British, the French and the Russians also having a look in. Russia’s defeat in war by Japan in 1905 and its revolution in that year put them out of the game, but the British were still concerned about potential Russian interference in their plans. Britain’s focus in this region was mainly on its commercial and colonial empire, defended by the British navy, especially in the trade with India. This made Egypt (the Suez Canal), the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf critical areas. In the first decade or so of the 20th century, Britain was not much bothered with the Arabian interior, seeing it as a desert full of trouble rather than profit. Instead it focused on doing protection deals with coastal sheikdoms such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, etc. Britain’s strategic terms were: ‘we protect you, and you make no agreements with anyone else unless we say so’. France had far less of a role in this region, although it had built up a presence in Syria and Lebanon. Instead, until World War 1, the Ottoman Empire was the main ruler, although its governmental power was fragile. The Sublime Porte, the central government in Istanbul, was in charge of the Empire, taking allegiance and collecting taxes. But in the case of the Arabian peninsular this usually meant paying off local rulers, including Ibn Saud, to prevent political unrest. It is unlikely the Ottomans made any money out of this part of its Empire, although it gained prestige from being in charge of Mecca, the central location for pilgrims and the religious centre of its own Islamic rule.[3]
When the Ottomans made the mistake of backing the loser in World War One, Germany, the victors dismembered what remained of their fragile Empire after 1918.[4] The beneficiaries were Britain and France, largely based on the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916, which was struck even before the war was over. As a sign of imperial priorities, France was at least as concerned about its colonial possessions as it was about the fact that it had been invaded by Germany!
The Hijaz and the Najd – the western and eastern areas, respectively, of what became most of Saudi Arabia’s territory – were not really part of this imperial land grab. France had had little or no influence there before, and did not do much to get it later, while Britain was not interested, except for the Red Sea and Persian Gulf coasts, an important route to India, and Palestine, the hinterland to the Suez Canal in Egypt. Britain backed any locals who would do its wishes. After war broke out, the main British objective was to oppose the Ottomans, and this meant backing rival forces, Hussein, the Sharif of Mecca and also his opponent, Ibn Saud. Britain could not afford to allocate many troops or to get heavily involved in struggles in Arabia’s interior. Hence, Lawrence ‘of Arabia’, a British intelligence officer, had the role of organising the Syrian-based support for the Arab revolt against the Ottomans. Lawrence deceived the Arabs about prospects for independence, underplaying the role of Britain, by using Hussein as a figurehead (however, he did not know until later of the Sykes-Picot Agreement to hand Syria over to the French). Meanwhile, the British supplied both Hussein and Ibn Saud with weapons and money to achieve these aims.

Sharif Hussein had ambitions for rule over more than just the Hijaz, including Mecca and Medina. Prompted by promises of British support, he played a key role in the start of the Arab revolt against the Ottomans in 1916 and soon declared himself ‘King of All Arabs’. This presumption annoyed the British, who were looking for widespread Arab support against the Ottomans. Hussein could be a useful figurehead, but did not have sufficient authority over and loyal support from rival groups as Ottoman power began to crumble. Above all, the declaration only served to increased Ibn Saud’s opposition to Hussein. Unfortunately for Hussein, Ibn Saud was a much smarter operator in the region, both politically and militarily, and by 1926 had consolidated his power in Hijaz as well as the Najd.
The British did not want to intervene in this battle directly, posing it as a religious affair outside their political concerns. However, the British were happy to sideline Hussein and to support Ibn Saud. Hussein was less acceptable to Moslems from the Indian colony than Ibn Saud, and he had also shown an unforgivably obstructive attitude by refusing to sign Anglo-Hijaz treaty in 1921. That treaty would have bound Hussein to accept the terms of the mandate Britain had secured from the League of Nations regarding Palestine, one that greatly restricted potential Arab independence and also allowed for the setting up within Palestine of a ‘national home for the Jewish people’.[5] After being defeated by Ibn Saud, Hussein abdicated in 1924 and was shipped off by the British into exile in Cyprus, a British colony, then Jordan. The Palestine issue was not among Ibn Saud’s concerns at that time, given that he was focused on establishing his rule in the Arabian peninsular.
In the immediate post-war years, two of Hussein’s sons were nevertheless useful for the British, even if their father’s imperial value had declined. Faisal, the youngest and most able, was first sent to Syria as King. But the French were as suspicious of a UK ally as they were of Arab nationalism and expelled Faisal after the Franco-Syrian war in 1920. France wanted to make sure it would be in control of Syria and Lebanon after being given the mandate for them by the League of Nations. In 1921, the British decided to install Faisal as King in its own mandated area of Iraq instead, based on a rigged plebiscite showing that this person, previously unknown to the Iraqis, had 96% support! Hussein’s older son, the incompetent Abdullah, was trickier to deal with. For him, the British invented a new ‘state’ – Transjordania, later Jordan – in the eastern part of mandated Palestine, and warned Ibn Saud to stay clear of seizing any Jordanian territory.
These changing power relationships and regional turmoil gave Ibn Saud an unusual degree of freedom. He was able to build up a Wahhabi military force loyal to him, the Ikhwan, based upon his family’s previous links with this version of Islam. This force played a key role in seizing Hijaz in 1924. Later, Ibn Saud took action to disband the zealous and brutal Ikhwan, and also made efforts to settle the tribal groupings in the Najd and elsewhere, tribes whose economic modus operandi had been largely dependent upon robbing, or getting protection money from, the many pilgrims en route to Mecca. Ibn Saud’s plans very much depended upon him getting financial subsidies from outside powers, formerly the Ottomans and then the British. After 1916, he got some £5,000 per month or more, a considerable sum, since that was when the purchasing power of one pound sterling was more than a little higher than it is today. Ibn Saud was getting up to £10,000 per month from Britain in 1919.[6] This dependency was based upon the limited economy of the region, which had little agricultural potential and no industry.

US interest and the Saudi regime based on oil

It was the discovery of oil that changed everything for Saudi Arabia. From being a cash-strapped political and military leader inspired by his own dynasty, one who was always running short of funds as he bought loyalty, oil revenues made Ibn Saud – and the favoured ruling elites – fabulously wealthy. However, this was a slow process and one that, as with the earlier foundation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, evolved in the context of rivalries between imperial powers.
In the 1920s, the US produced the bulk of world oil, accounting for just over 70% of total production. This gave the US government little incentive to seek alternative sources of oil outside its territory. Britain had already focused on oil since it had switched the power source of the Royal Navy from coal to oil, but it had by then secured large-scale oil supplies from Iran. When oil was discovered in Bahrain in 1932, however, this led US oil company explorers to surmise that Saudi Arabia might also be a potential source of supply. Ibn Saud was happy to choose a company from the US to do the exploration, since he had more suspicion of French and British colonial designs in the region. In May 1933, his finance minister signed a deal with Standard Oil of California to do the prospecting in the eastern half of Saudi Arabia. At the time, this was simply another means for Ibn Saud to get some revenues. If the Americans were dumb enough, and rich enough, to pay for exploration rights when there was far from any certainty that oil would be found, that was a good bet according to his previous economic experience. Socal paid an upfront £50,000 and a retainer of £5,000 per annum, with an agreement to pay another £100,000 on any discovery and four shillings per ton of oil actually produced.
This sterling denomination of the initial contract amounts (four shillings was 0.2 pounds) indicated that the UK was the major economic power in the region at the time, and the one that had the closest links with the Saudis. US companies had been restricted from other sources of supply in the Middle East (apart from Bahrain) by cartel arrangements of the Turkish (then Iraq) Petroleum Company, a consortium mainly owned by the British-run Anglo-Persian Oil Company (later BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (Anglo-Dutch), with the French Compagnie Francaises des Petroles demanding Germany’s former interests. Only later, from 1928, was a group of US companies admitted to the consortium. However, all those arrangements were to change in the following decade or so, in favour of the Saudi Arabia and the US, including a switch of currency payments into US dollars and a dramatic boost in Saudi oil production. Saudi Arabia’s share of world oil production rose from zero in 1938 to 5.6% in 1950, not far behind Iran, while the US share had dropped to 56%.
Several changes had occurred in imperial calculations from the early 1940s. World War Two had brought home to all countries the importance of access to oil supplies for military strategy. It was an important feature of Germany’s focus on moving into Eastern Europe, for example. The US had also become a net importer of oil in the early 1940s, after having previously been self-sufficient. As a result, the US government got more directly involved in Saudi Arabia, although it only established an embassy there in 1942. The US government felt that it needed safe supplies of oil in case western hemisphere output (mainly US and Venezuelan) diminished or was insufficient. For the US, the Saudi alternative was also important as a power lever against rival countries, and it especially wanted to prevent the UK from monopolising Middle Eastern oil supplies. Saudi Arabia was also less open to influence from the Soviet Union, so it seemed, with a Wahhabi-based religious dynastic state being at the other end of the political spectrum from the Communist atheists. The Wahhabis even despised, and often murdered, fellow Moslems, if they were not the right kind of Moslem.[7] The US strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia was a union of corporate and national US interests that has held for a long time, although it may now be coming under pressure.
In economic terms, while Saudi Arabia’s oil was high in sulphur content, so less valuable per barrel than Iran’s or that available in Texas or the UK’s North Sea, it was much cheaper to extract, so offsetting the extra processing cost. This made it very profitable for the US oil companies that became Aramco (the Arabian and American Oil Corporation), especially since they gained a tax break from the US government on their foreign profits. It was also a boon for the Saudis, although they, like other commodity producing countries in the imperialist world economy, found that they were not getting perhaps all that they might from the production taking place on their territory.
It took initiatives from other oil producing countries to encourage the Saudis to get a better deal for their oil from the major corporations in the 1960s and afterwards. By the early 1970s, the Saudis also began to take over shares in Aramco, eventually buying them out, and the company was renamed as Saudi Aramco in 1980. However, Aramco’s US-based partners continued to operate the production facilities.
The group of oil producing countries, OPEC, hiked the price of oil from the early 1970s, and this also boosted Saudi revenues. The price hike was prompted largely by oil shortages and the falling purchasing power of what had for a very long time been stable, nominal US dollar oil prices, especially as the value of the dollar fell significantly on foreign exchanges. However, the move was also in the context of the Arab-Israeli war in 1973, in which Arab countries imposed an oil embargo on Israel-supporting western powers. Between 1950 and 1969, a benchmark US oil price had been close to $2.5-3.0 per barrel (with Saudi crude at less than $2), so the rise to $10 by 1974 and $40 by 1980 was a big shock for the world economy – and a big positive for US oil corporations and Saudi finances. Saudi government oil revenues rose from less than $2 billion in 1970 to around $85 billion in 1980, helped also by a near-tripling of oil output.

But now there are Saudi economic and political problems

In 2014, Saudi Arabia had around a sixth of the world's proven oil reserves and was by far the largest producer (one-eighth of the world total) and exporter. The petroleum sector accounts for four-fifths of the government’s budget revenues, nearly half of GDP, and 90% of export earnings. However, the extravagant oil price levels of more than $100 per barrel in 2014 are no more. Such prices had encouraged high cost shale oil and gas production, especially in the US, and also a higher output of oil from other producing countries looking for more revenues. The high price levels were also an economic pressure on importing countries, and eventually depressed world demand, adding to the renewed stagnation of the world economy.
However, the fall in prices did not stop Saudi Arabia maintaining oil output, rather than curbing output to help support oil prices as it had done on previous occasions. The new Saudi logic was to discourage the extra, higher-cost suppliers and to maintain its market share. But its problem now is that it has embarked upon big expenditures in recent years – including promoting the coup against the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt, putting down rebellions in Yemen and Bahrain, and funding its own version of Islamic politics in many other countries, not least in Syria and Iraq. Given the already generous funding of social programmes to buy political stability, this has led to a huge deficit in Saudi Arabia’s public finances of close to 20% of GDP in 2015.
This means that the Saudi government faces very big economic pressures, ones that have only strengthened its repressive instincts. However, while they retain huge wealth, including some $630bn in foreign exchange reserves (although that is down from a peak of $745bn in 2014), their fragile social basis is shown in the facts that expatriates do half the jobs in the country and, with half the population under 25, youth unemployment is 30%. Given their upbringing in this rentier state, many Saudis view ‘ordinary’ jobs as beneath them, and around 8 million of the country’s 27 million population are non-nationals. The economic reality shock to come as the limits of oil wealth show themselves is liable to result in a social and political crisis. This is one reason why, in what came as a shock to the financial markets when it was announced last week, Saudi Arabia is now thinking of selling some shares in its prized Saudi Aramco to raise funds.
A longstanding problem for the Saudi state arises from its sectarian religious outlook. The Wahhabi version of Islam has been a means by which the ruling family has controlled society and terrorised opponents, especially Shia Moslems who make up somewhere between 10-15% of Saudi Arabia’s population. However, there is a majority Shia Moslem population based in the Eastern Province, the location of most of its oil production. The Shia, together with many migrant labourers, do most of the work there.

Saudi strategic trouble

It may be thought that huge Saudi wealth will be enough to shelter the regime from problems. After all, extravagant deals in weapons and other items with the US, UK and France do buy it support. The US also has a number of important military bases in Saudi Arabia. The UK’s continuing links were shown when it halted a Serious Fraud office inquiry into bribery and the Al-Yamamah deal with British defence companies, and when it fixed the vote so as to get Saudi Arabia onto the UN Human Rights Council! However, political risks arise from the Saudi elite’s economic upbringing. As a friend once remarked to me about the Saudis: ‘when you have too much money and you do not have to work or think for a living, your brain turns to mush’. Whereas Ibn Saud was successful in managing imperial rivalries and pushing aside local opposition to establish his extended family’s state, since his death in 1953 later generations of Saudi rulers have shown increasing signs of mushiness.
Saudi Arabia sees Iran as its main strategic rival, or at least as a potential supporter of Shia populations in the region that have a low economic status in Sunni-run regimes. But there has now been a deal with the US to lift sanctions on Iran, after an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (also known as an arm of the US government). Sanctions could begin to be lifted from as soon as next week. The Saudis (as well as the Israelis) are not happy. This was likely one reason, apart from their general crackdown on Shia dissidents, for them to execute Shia cleric Nimr Al-Nimr on 2 January. They may have hoped to prompt Iran into taking clumsy political moves in response, but Iran was not so stupid. As a sign that the tide may be turning against them, instead all that happened was that Saudi Arabia’s ‘human rights’ record was once again splashed over the world news media. The Saudi apologia that most of the 47 executed were Sunni did not go down well.
The lifting of sanctions on Iran will encourage many western capitalists to get into this big market, and that will drive major power politics on Iran, no matter what the Saudis do. Iran and Russia are, for now, seen as partners by the US in the battle against ISIS, which is one of the biggest sources of trouble for them and other powers. In contrast, although they do not say so publicly, the US knows full well that ISIS has been funded by Saudi and other Gulf citizens. A US State Department cable, dated December 2009 and recently published by Wikileaks, made it clear that ‘donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide’. Saudi Arabia’s alliance with Turkey against Assad in Syria is also not working out. Turkey has been identified as a source of funding and support for ISIS too, while its economy is in trouble and likely to get worse, following Russian sanctions after Turkey’s air force downed one of its jets in November.
Saudi Arabia has been worried about the changing balance of power in the region, but its actions have destabilised things further and are worrying its western allies as well as Russia. For example, the main Saudi political player is Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud. He rejoices in the titles of Deputy Crown Prince, Second Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister. In December, the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, noted that he was ‘prepared to take unprecedented military, financial and political risks to avoid falling behind in regional politics’. This referred to his support for the Al-Nusra Front in Syria and his aggressive military intervention in Yemen. All of this has turned into a never-ending disaster, contrasting with what the report described as ‘the careful diplomatic stance of older members of the Saudi royal family’. MbS, as he likes to be known, is the favourite son of the 80 year old King Salman, who is suffering from dementia, and is now lining himself up to be the future ruler of the Kingdom.
MbS will find that he has less room for manoeuvre than Ibn Saud. There is no sign that the major powers are concerned about Yemen, but they are very closely watching what goes on in Iraq and Syria, although they have little ability to control events there. The forces unleashed could also come back to damage MbS himself, since there is no reason why ISIS would want to exclude its ‘caliphate’ from Mecca, for example.
Saudi Arabia is a creature of imperialism in the Middle East region, one that for a while ‘got lucky’, both with the major powers being otherwise engaged or not much concerned, and more so with the discovery of cheap oil reserves. But, despite its wealth, Saudi Arabia has failed to develop its economy and society and instead has contributed to the blood and gore that are the hallmarks of the modern imperialist world.

Tony Norfield, 13 January 2016


[1] This is not to say that ISIS gets the bulk of its money from Saudi Arabia (or other Gulf states). Most of ISIS money comes from selling oil and extortion, and its weapons have generally been supplied – if only indirectly, in terms of being seized from the ‘moderate’ rebels – by the US, Britain and France.
[2] There are many different English spellings of the original Arabic terms and different ways of referring to the people involved. I will use what I have found to be the most common spellings, and also to refer to the first ruler of Saudi Arabia as Ibn Saud, rather than the (much) longer Abdulaziz ibn Abdul Rahman ibn Faisal ibn Turki ibn Abdullah ibn Muhammad Al Saud, or other variants. Note that the Arabic term written in English as ‘ibn’, or alternatively ‘bin’, means ‘son of’.
[3] It should be noted that the Ottomans were relatively liberal regarding religious allegiance. The key point was: pay your taxes and do not cause trouble, and we will leave you alone. Hence, Jews, Christians and others were welcome in the Ottoman establishment, even if they did not have the full rights of (Sunni) Moslems.
[4] Austria-Hungary had already annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina from the Ottomans in 1908 and Italy had seized Libya after a war in 1912.
[5] This was a version of Britain’s infamous Balfour Declaration in 1917, one that at a critical stage in World War One offered a big concession to Zionists, while also claiming not to prejudice the rights of non-Jewish people in Palestine. This is not the main topic of the article here, but it is worth noting that the British were past masters at such ambiguity. There were certainly some Zionist British ministers, but also many who did not want to upset their relationships with the Arabs. A previous set of ambiguous commitments that was more in favour of Arab independence from the Ottoman Empire was the Hussein-MacMahon correspondence in 1915-16. A key motive for the Balfour Declaration was to get support from US-based Zionists to strengthen US support for British policy in the war. Far from the Balfour Declaration showing unequivocal British support for establishing the State of Israel, Britain later tried to limit Jewish immigration into Palestine and faced numerous attacks from Zionist forces, including the assassination of Lord Moyne in 1944. A final brief point to note an outrageous non sequitur and extra crime: the Europeans compensated for their slaughter of Jews by aiding the theft of Arab land!
[6] The British stopped their subsidies of Ibn Saud after a dispute in the mid-1920s, on the dispute with Hussein, but resumed later. This longstanding relationship was enough for the US government initially to consider it a fact of life about which they could do little.
[7] In case European readers get all superior about the Wahhabis, they should remember that it would be difficult to top the number of murders of Catholics and Protestants in Europe (in the 16th century and after) in the name of Christianity. Religion was, and still often is, a sign of social-political status or allegiance.

Wednesday, 9 December 2015

The Wisdom of Social Media


Half an iPhone conversation, overheard on a London bus:

‘I was thinking of getting that jacket, but didn’t like the feel of the material. Then the guy in the shop came up and tried to persuade me to buy it.

‘He claimed that Kanye West was in his shop yesterday and was getting measured up for a bespoke leather jacket.

‘What a lie! And he was stupid to tell that lie to me! I follow the Kardashians and I know full well that Kanye West wasn’t even in England yesterday!

‘I don’t like his music, but I think he looks cool.’

If only critical attention to lies and inconsistency had a different focus.


Tony Norfield, 9 December 2015