Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts

Monday, 15 July 2019

China & World Trade

Just in case you had forgotten that China is a major part of the global economy, here is a chart from the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report. It shows that China's share of the international trade in goods is bigger than others for South America and Asia (including Japan and Australia). It is nearly as big as total European trade with the US.

Annoyingly, Africa is left out of the chart calculations, but I suspect China is also biggest there.


This is a stubborn fact that Trump and friends will find it difficult to deal with as they attempt to bully and isolate China in the world economy. It is also one reason they are very likely to fail.

Tony Norfield, 15 July 2019

Thursday, 1 September 2016

Farewell European Finance?

The latest Bank for International Settlements survey of the global FX market offers some interesting insights into the development of the global economy. Currency trading is critical as a measure of market activity, since it encompasses all the deals between countries (assuming they have a different currency), whether for trade, investment, hedging or speculation. Deals are largely done between financial companies, but they also reflect the activity of non-financial ones and the economy in general. Between April 2013, the date of the previous survey, and April 2016, the latest one, the striking feature of the BIS report is the decline in the volume of currency trading for the first time in many years. On a net-gross basis (the measure used, there are others!), the volume of global FX trading fell by 2%.

The main casualty is the UK (basically, London) as a trading centre, although it remains by far the biggest in the world. The gainers in terms of market share are the US and Canada, but more significantly the Asian FX trading centres. To have a smaller share of a market in decline, as the UK has had, is a big problem for a previously lucrative financial business.

The UK's share of global currency trading fell from 40.8% in 2013 to 37.1% in 2016, a very sharp drop, although still above the level in 2010. Meanwhile, the US, in second position, rose by 0.5% to 19.4% from 2013 to 2016. The US rise in share nevertheless meant that its volume of dealing rose by less than 1% over the three years; the UK's volume fell by 11%. The UK decline reflects the weaker European economy and the related weakness in euro currency trading in London (some three-quarters of the total euro trading), while US banks were in a relatively strong position, but that was not saying much.

Overall, Europe's share of currency dealing fell between 2013 and 2016, not only due to the UK. France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Ireland and Switzerland also declined. Although Germany had a slight gain in market share over this period, its share in this financial business is minimal at less than 2%.

Asian trading centres are recorded as the winners from the latest BIS report. Despite the impact of the global crisis on 'emerging market' countries that are vulnerable to changes in developments in the world economy, several Asian trading centres have had success on this financial dealing measure. Singapore's share of the volume of trading rose from 5.7% to 7.9%; taken together, China and Hong Kong's rose from 4.8% to 7.8%. This is an astonishing result for China, especially, backed by the near-doubling of the use of the renminbi in global FX dealing to 4%, making it the eighth largest trading currency, just behind the more established Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, the euro slipped to its lowest share since its inception, to just 31%, while the US dollar rose slightly to 88% (note that with two currencies in each deal, the total shares add up to 200%).

Financial dealing is far from being a full picture of reality. But the shift in economic weight from Europe to Asia is a clear message from the latest BIS FX report, with the US holding its own. This is consistent with a wide variety of other economic assessments.

Tony Norfield, 1 September 2016



Friday, 22 March 2013

UK Foreign Direct Investment Profits


The table below is an update of some figures shown in the first article on this blog, 'The Economics of British Imperialism' in May 2011. That article covered the broad mechanism in play, something I am still researching, particularly its financial aspects. This table only refers to one dimension of the total picture, but an interesting one nevertheless. It shows the profit rates of outward UK direct investment, in total and by geographical region, including some key countries.

Profit rates are calculated by measuring company earnings divided by the average value of share capital and reserves owned by UK companies in that year and the previous one. The same pattern of profit rates applies for these numbers that go up to end-2011 as the for the ones to end-2009 in the 2011 article: the bulk of FDI assets are located in the richer countries, but a much higher profit rate is gained from the poorer countries. There are exceptions, especially for UK investment (largely in mining operations) in Australia. However, the overall divergence is clear. Africa, Asia (including the Middle East in these data) and Brazil stand out as sources of huge premium investment returns compared to other locations. The India numbers probably explain UK Prime Minister Cameron's visit last month to India, together with representatives of more than 100 British companies.

It seems odd that there would be such a divergence in profit rates. After all, if a higher profit rate is available elsewhere, then why does not more capital migrate to that country, rather than stay in one of the richer countries? This raises bigger issues about the monopolistic structure of the world market, whether there is much of a process of equalising rates of profit in the world economy, and whether having a presence in major, rich markets is necessary from the perspective of maintaining commercial control of major consumer markets, even if it turns out not to be directly profitable. Or, alternatively the data may just be rubbish, hiding the real locations of company operations and/or giving the wrong view of the returns on investment! One obvious problem here is that companies can relatively easily relocate the location of their profits to countries with lower tax rates, whether by charging 'licence fees' to a pretend headquarters in a tax haven, or by some other means of transfer pricing.

John Smith, cited elsewhere on this blog, has argued correctly that one should distinguish FDI by its type: where is the productive FDI capital located, as opposed to the commercial or financial capital, or other unproductive operations? In addition, what may appear to be productive capital might be getting most of its 'value added' from cheap supplies from poor countries. UK FDI data suggest that most productive UK FDI is located in rich countries, but these are regional figures with little country breakdown, something that is omitted to secure individual company information, but which only adds to scepticism about what the data actually reflect. In any case, such data cannot take into account the benefits to major companies of their links with foreign suppliers that they dominate in so-called value-chains.

This is a complex topic that is hard to resolve with official statistics. However, insofar as the data represent anything, the following table is what they show:




In 2011, the UK gained £102 billion of profits in total from its foreign direct investment, £58 billion more than was accrued by foreign direct investment in the UK, and the highest net earnings figure since 2008. Nice work if, as an imperial power, you can get it ...


Tony Norfield, 22 March 2013





Monday, 3 September 2012

Idealism and Debt


This is a response to some brief comments David Graeber made on my review of his book, Debt: the First 5000 Years, published on this blog on 27 August. I cover two points: the issue of an idealist conception of history and the debt the US owes to China and Asia.

Firstly, my criticism that the book is based on an ‘idealist’ conception of history. History, as Marx and Engels noted, has been a ‘history of class struggles’, but in their examination of history they showed, as Marx put it, that ‘the existence of classes is only bound up with the particular, historical phases in the development of production’.[1] Your analysis does look at class struggles through the ages, but pays little attention to their economic foundation, and it is on this basis that you can elevate concepts such as debt to an ahistorical level. Hence, in the conclusion of your chapter on ‘The age of the great capitalist empires’ you argue that the notion that capitalism would be around forever was the reason behind the credit bubble: ‘Presented with the prospect of its own eternity, capitalism – or anyway, financial capitalism – simply explodes’ (p360). Your analysis puts the evolution of the crisis down to psychology and fails to examine the underlying causes of the credit bubble, which resulted from problems of capital accumulation and profitability.[2]

I am not criticising the book for failing to explain the universe and everything in it, and, of course, I accept that the book aims to cover the issue of debt. However, it is a legitimate criticism to point out mistakes in the analysis. Another example on this topic is where you cover the setting up of the Bank of England in 1694, when a consortium of English bankers loaned £1.2m to the King and in return received a monopoly of banknote issuance and other privileges. You make the absurd claim that if the loan were ever paid back, ‘the entire monetary system of Great Britain would cease to exist’ (p49). This is just ridiculous, not least because the Bank of England is a nationalised entity. It is not a private corporation that could be wound up if the privileges establishing its position were annulled with the repayment of the loan. In any event, a country’s monetary system is not dependent on a particular institution staying in place.

Secondly, on debts the US owes to China and Asia. I did not claim that ‘most money owed in the world today is owed to China or other Asian creditors’. My point was that you argued in your book for a debt ‘Jubilee’ that ‘would affect both international debt and consumer debt’. You raised the issue of cancelling international debt, and I do claim that a large chunk of the US international debt is owed to China and other Asian countries. The total of US debt, including that owed to other US citizens/companies, is far bigger than the international, so that any other country’s proportion of that total is bound to be relatively small. But, if we focus on the international debt, the numbers are far from negligible.

The following figures, which I calculate from the US Treasury website, leave out Japan, an imperialist power, in order to focus on the debt to poor Asian countries. Total US Treasury and government agency (including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) debt owned by all foreign countries in June 2011 was $5,781bn, of which China (including Hong Kong) owned $1,785bn and the rest of poor Asia another $529bn. The total Asia figure of $2,315bn is 40% of the Treasury and agency debt owned by other countries.

China may not own any student loan debt, but the book did not specify only cancelling this type of debt. China and other poor Asian countries would certainly get hit pretty badly on any broad debt cancellation. The US owns less than $100bn of debt securities in Asian countries outside Japan.

There are many ways to measure debt, and the comments above refer only to official debt securities. They do not include corporate debt, nor equity holdings, nor the assets and liabilities represented by direct investment. If ‘everything’ is included, at least as measured in published statistics, then the data for 2011 show that the US economy has a net debt position with the rest of the world amounting to $4,157bn. In other words, foreign investors own this amount more of all kinds of assets in the US than the US owns in other countries.[3] Nevertheless, because of its privileged imperial position, with the role of the US dollar in particular, it was still able to earn a net revenue on this debt position of $235bn in 2011![4]


Tony Norfield, 3 September 2012


Here is a copy of David Graeber’s comments:

Just a couple notes:

I do not actually say that changes in the nature of money are the driving force of history; you just seem to conclude this because I do not provide a theory of the "motor of history" at all, but mainly describe what happened, and since the book is about money and debt, money and debt are what I focus on. However when I do suggest specific you will find, if look carefully, that it's always based in class struggle of some sort or another. Coinage comes about through the rise of professional armies and slave systems. The ban on usury in Islam comes from a shift in class alliances. Etc. Sometimes I note ironic results, such as the disaster that certain forms of debt resistance in the ancient Middle East had on the status of women, or the way that successful popular resistance in Ming China set the stage for the elite counter-offensive in 16-17C Europe. But it's always class struggle ultimately. Skim the book again with that in mind and you'll see it.

The idea that most money owed in the world today is owed to China or other Asian creditors is simply untrue. They just hold a lot of US treasury bonds, which are losing propositions economically anyway. About 74% of the US public for instance, are in debt, and 1 in 7 are currently being pursued by collection agencies, and the amount of student loan debt at all is over a trillion dollars. Close to none of that is owed to China.


[1] Marx, Letter to Weydemeyer, 5 March 1852.
[2] These topics have been analysed on this blog in various articles, see for example ‘Anti-Bank Populism in the Imperial Heartland’, 5 July 2011.
[3] See US Bureau of Economic Affairs, ‘The International Investment Position of the United States at Yearend 2011’, July 2012.
[4] For further details of how this works, see ‘Dimensions of Dollar Imperialism’ 5 October 2011, on this blog.